Market Timing
🟡 CAUTION — Loading…
| Indicator | Value | Score |
|---|---|---|
| SOX/QQQ Ratio | — | ○ +0 |
| VIX Structure | — | ○ +0 |
| Index Health | — | ○ +0 |
| Breadth | — | ○ +0 |
| Macro Floor | — | ○ +0 |
| CFNAI | — | ○ +0 |
Auto-calculated · updates on page load
Score: — / 6
| Phase | Trigger | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Phase 1 — Green | Score ≥ 5/6 · SOX leading, breadth healthy, VIX calm, CFNAI above trend | Hold longs · buy dips aggressively |
| 🟡 Phase 2-3 — Watch | Score 3–4/6 · mixed signals, SOX diverging | Reduce risk · tighten stops · no new longs |
| 🔴 Phase 4 — Red | Score ≤ 2/6 · Nasdaq breakdown, SOX bear market | Exit growth positions · move to cash |
Early Warning (SOX / QQQ Ratio)
SOXX / QQQ Daily Ratio with 200-Day SMA + Normalized Prices
Ratio above amber 200 SMA = healthy bull. Ratio breaks below 200 SMA = Phase 2 critical warning ⚠
7-day trend · last 7 trading days
Phase: —
—
Based on 7-day ratio slope
| Slope | Phase | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| ↑ Sharp Up | Early/Mid Bull | Buy dips aggressively |
| ↘ Divergent | Late Bull | Optimal sell window |
| ↓ Sharp Down | Early Bear | Exit all growth |
| → Neutral | Transition | Monitor direction |
Current Ratio—
200 SMA—
Status—
VIX Term Structure
VIX / VIX3M Ratio — Complacency vs Panic
< 0.85 = Extreme complacency, Late Bull warning 🟡 · > 1.05 = Backwardation, Panic / Bottoming 🟢
Index Health — Traffic Light
Distance from 52-Week High
SPY
—
from 52w high
QQQ
—
from 52w high
SOXX
—
from 52w high
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Market Breadth
SPY Price + RSP/SPY Breadth Ratio vs 200-Day SMA
SPY Price vs 200 SMA
RSP/SPY Breadth Ratio vs 200 SMA
| Price | Internals | Signal | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | Strong | ✅ Confirm | Broad participation. Safest to be long. |
| Bullish | Weak | ⚠ Diverge | Generals leading, soldiers retreating. High risk. |
| Bearish | Strong | ↗ Accum | Price lagging, stocks rising under the hood. |
| Bearish | Weak | 🔴 Capitul | Maximum systemic weakness. |
RSP/SPY ratio = Equal Weight vs Cap Weight S&P 500. Rising ratio = broad participation (healthy). Falling ratio = narrow leadership (warning).
Macro Floor
4-Week MA of Initial Claims (IC4WSA)
Current —
Prev week —
4wk ago —
4-week MA smooths weekly noise. Rising claims confirm exit from Yellow Zone into true recessionary bear market. Used as lagging confirmation only.
Economic Activity Index
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3) — Expansion vs Contraction
CFNAI-MA3 (0 = long-term trend baseline)
scroll to zoom · drag to pan
| CFNAI-MA3 | Meaning | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| > +0.20 | Strong expansion | ✅ Strongest macro tailwind |
| 0 to +0.20 | Moderate expansion | ↑ Above-trend growth — bullish backdrop |
| −0.70 to 0 | Below-trend growth | ⚠ Slowing — watch for deterioration |
| < −0.70 | Recession territory | 🔴 Recession risk — risk-off mode |
CFNAI-MA3 is a 3-month moving average of 85 US economic indicators. Below −0.70 historically coincides with recession onset. Monthly data via FRED.
How to Read the MarketPhase Dashboard
MarketPhase combines four independent lenses — market leadership, the volatility regime, market breadth, and the macro backdrop — into a single, rules-based read on which phase the market is in. It does not predict prices. It tells you which environment you are standing in, so you can size risk accordingly instead of guessing.
The four market phases
- Early / Mid Bull — leadership rising, volatility calm. Trend is your friend; buy dips.
- Late Bull — leadership stalling near highs. The optimal window to take profits, not chase.
- Early Bear — leadership rolling over, volatility rising. Reduce growth exposure and protect capital.
- Transition — signals disagree. Wait for direction before committing.
What each signal measures
- SOX/QQQ ratio — semiconductors versus the broad Nasdaq. Chips lead the risk cycle: a rising ratio means investors are paying up for the most cyclical corner of tech (risk-on); a falling ratio warns that risk appetite is draining. We track its 7-day slope for direction.
- VIX term structure — near-term versus longer-dated volatility. Contango (calm) is normal and supportive; backwardation — near-term fear priced above long-term — flags acute stress and a possible regime change.
- Breadth & 52-week distance — how broadly the advance participates and how far the index sits from its high. Narrow breadth near a high is a classic late-cycle warning.
- CFNAI macro floor — the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a 3-month average of 85 US economic series. Above zero is above-trend growth; below −0.70 has historically coincided with recession onset. It is the macro backstop beneath the market signals.
- Jobless claims — the fastest-moving read on the labor market, and an early warning when the macro floor begins to crack.
Why we combine them
No single indicator is enough. Leadership and volatility catch turns in market behavior early; breadth confirms whether a move is broad or fragile; and the CFNAI macro floor tells you whether the economic backdrop supports risk at all. When all four align, conviction is high. When they conflict, the dashboard reads “Transition” — a signal to wait rather than force a trade.
Learn the framework in depth
- How the market-timing phase model works
- The SOXX/QQQ ratio, explained
- Reading the VIX and its term structure
- The CFNAI and the macro floor
- Sector rotation across market phases
- Recession indicators that actually lead
Data via the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API and public market sources. For educational purposes only — not financial advice.