What phase is the stock market in right now?
As of 2026-08-22, the MarketPhase market-timing model reads Phase 2–3 (Watch), scoring 4 out of 6. That indicates a caution phase — the signals are mixed and downside risk is building. In this phase the model says reduce risk, tighten stops, and avoid new aggressive longs.
Live reading · updated 2026-08-22. Powered by the MarketPhase live dashboard.
Today's signal readings
| Signal | Reading | Scored |
|---|---|---|
| SOX/QQQ Ratio | Bullish — ratio 0.7289 | ✓ |
| VIX Structure | Complacent — ratio 0.818 | ✓ |
| Index Health | Avg 7.9% from high | ○ |
| Breadth | Healthy — RSP/SPY 0.2895 | ✓ |
| Macro Floor | Claims improving (204,000K) | ✓ |
| CFNAI | MA3: -0.05 (below trend) · 2026-06 | ○ |
The four market phases
MarketPhase turns four independent lenses — market leadership, the volatility regime, market breadth, and the macro backdrop — into a single, rules-based read on which phase the market is in. It does not predict prices; it tells you which environment you're in so you can size risk accordingly.
- Phase 1 — Green (score 5–6): healthy bull. Hold longs and buy dips.
- Phase 2–3 — Watch (score 3–4): mixed signals, risk building. Reduce risk, tighten stops, no new aggressive longs.
- Phase 4 — Red (score 0–2): leadership broken, risk-off. Cut growth exposure, raise cash.
How the phase is calculated
Six signals are scored out of 6:
- SOX/QQQ ratio — semiconductor leadership vs the broad Nasdaq (risk appetite).
- VIX term structure — calm (contango) vs stress (backwardation).
- Index health — distance from 52-week highs.
- Market breadth — how broadly the advance participates.
- Jobless claims — the fastest labor-market read.
- CFNAI macro floor — broad US economic activity; below −0.70 flags recession risk.
Learn the framework in depth: market-timing phase model, the SOXX/QQQ ratio, the VIX term structure, the CFNAI.
Frequently asked
What phase is the stock market in right now?
As of 2026-08-22, the MarketPhase market-timing model reads Phase 2–3 (Watch), scoring 4 out of 6. That indicates a caution phase — the signals are mixed and downside risk is building. In this phase the model says reduce risk, tighten stops, and avoid new aggressive longs.
How is the market phase calculated?
MarketPhase scores six signals out of 6 — the SOX/QQQ leadership ratio, the VIX term structure, index health (distance from highs), market breadth, jobless claims, and the CFNAI macro floor. A score of 5–6 is Phase 1 (bull), 3–4 is Phase 2–3 (watch), and 0–2 is Phase 4 (defensive).
Is the market bullish or bearish today?
The model's current read is Phase 2–3 (Watch) (score 4/6) — that is a caution phase — the signals are mixed and downside risk is building.
What should I do in this market phase?
In phase 2–3 (watch), the model says reduce risk, tighten stops, and avoid new aggressive longs. This is educational information, not financial advice.
Data via the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API and public market sources. For educational purposes only — not financial advice.